With Russia’s economy collapsing, its stock market cryogenically frozen and its bonds near default, global investors are set to endure major losses.
Why it matters: For decades, Russian investments were a cornerstone of so-called “emerging market” investing, the financial world’s marketing rubric that helped encourage the free-flowing global investments that helped define the post-Cold War era.
- Russia was a star of the “BRICS” – a rubric coined by Goldman Sachs analysts that stood for the fast-growing emerging market economies that were investor favorites over the last two decades.
- BRICS = Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa.
State of play: It’s difficult to estimate how widespread the losses might be.
- Goldman analysts estimate that there are roughly $ 70 billion worth of Russian government bonds held by foreigners.
- A report from the Brookings Institution released last month said there were roughly $ 200 billion worth of Russian stocks owned by foreigners – including $ 68 billion in the US
Driving the news: In recent days, major financial players have disclosed – or had the press disclose for them – exposures to such investments that may cause billions in losses in the case of broad-based Russian debt defaults.
- BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has lost roughly $ 17 billion on Russian securities as a result of the invasion, the FT reported on Friday.
- Bond-trading giant Pimco could lose up to $ 2.6 billion if Russia fails to make its sovereign debt payments, after the asset manager bet big against a default, the FT reports.
- Italy’s second largest bank, Unicredit, said it could lose $ 8 billion if it has to fully write off – that is, value as worthless – its Russia business.
- French banking giant BNP Paribas said it has a combined $ 3 billion in exposure to Russia and Ukraine.
- Germany’s Deutsche Bank is exposed to about $ 3 billion.
- Credit Suisse acknowledged $ 1.7 billion in exposure.
Yes, but: More losses are almost sure to come.
- French bank Societe Generale has said that by the end of 2021, it had roughly € 18 billion (nearly $ 20 billion) worth of exposure.
- Last week, Citibank said it had a nearly $ 10 billion total exposure to Russia.
The intrigue: Those are just the losses we can obviously see coming. But violent market moves triggered by the Russian invasion – and the massive sanctions in response – have generated steep, and more unexpected, losses elsewhere.
- In China, an astounding surge in the price of nickel – in part due to worries about access to supplies from Russia, a top producer of the metal – rocked the empire of Xiang Guangda, the billionaire founder of one of China’s largest producers of stainless steel , Tsingshan Holding Group.
Meanwhile: Western corporations will incur losses on foreign direct investments – that is, business investments in Russia – as they rush to exit the market.
The bottom line: What a mess. The country’s economic meltdown – along with its brutal invasion of Ukraine that has put it in a similar box to North Korea – will likely be seen by historians as the end of the most recent chapter of financial globalization.
Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect breaking news about BlackRock’s Russia-related losses.